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Wienerberg vs Elektra — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Wienerberg
Wienerberg
CANC
14:00
Elektra
Elektra
4/17/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 21HMI Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wienerberg33%
×Draw24%
Elektra42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wienerberg
1.38
Elektra
1.58

Elektra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wienerberg
1.83
Elektra
1.77

allows per match

Wienerberg
1.39
Elektra
0.92

finishing

Wienerberg+0.00on par
Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wienerberg ↓

Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wienerberg or draw
58%
Wienerberg or Elektra
76%
Draw or Elektra
67%

Winning margin

Wienerberg wins by 2+
15%
Elektra wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wienerberg 1+ goals
75%
Wienerberg 2+ goals
40%
Wienerberg 3+ goals
16%
Elektra 1+ goals
79%
Elektra 2+ goals
47%
Elektra 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wienerberg (draw refunded)
44%
Elektra (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wienerberg at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Elektra away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wienerberg attack 1.83 + Elektra defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Elektra attack 1.77 + Wienerberg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wienerberg scores more
33%
level
24%
Elektra scores more
42%

Elektra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wienerberg host Elektra

April 17, 2021: Wienerberg take on Elektra in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wienerberg host Elektra at HMI Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.