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Wienerberg vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Wienerberg
Wienerberg
FT
2 – 2
ASV 13
ASV 13
10/15/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 9HMI Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Wienerberg61%
×Draw19%
ASV 1320%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wienerberg
2.41
ASV 13
1.32

Wienerberg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

creates per match

Wienerberg
1.83
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Wienerberg
1.39
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Wienerberg+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wienerberg ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Wienerberg or draw
80%
Wienerberg or ASV 13
81%
Draw or ASV 13
39%

Winning margin

Wienerberg wins by 2+
39%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wienerberg 1+ goals
91%
Wienerberg 2+ goals
69%
Wienerberg 3+ goals
43%
ASV 13 1+ goals
73%
ASV 13 2+ goals
38%
ASV 13 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wienerberg (draw refunded)
75%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wienerberg at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wienerberg attack 1.83 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.41

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Wienerberg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wienerberg scores more
61%
level
19%
ASV 13 scores more
20%

Wienerberg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wienerberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wienerberg vs ASV 13

Wienerberg and ASV 13 drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Wien on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at HMI Arena in Wien.