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Wiener Viktoria vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
CANC
14:30
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
5/22/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 24Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wiener Viktoria45%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
1.75
Team Wiener Linien
1.46

Wiener Viktoria creates 20% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 28 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
68%
Wiener Viktoria or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
55%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
24%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
83%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
52%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
25%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
77%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
43%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
58%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
45%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
32%

Wiener Viktoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wiener Viktoria host Team Wiener Linien

May 22, 2021: Wiener Viktoria take on Team Wiener Linien in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wiener Viktoria host Team Wiener Linien at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.