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Wiener Viktoria vs Donau — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Donau
Donau
11/8/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 15Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wiener Viktoria48%
×Draw23%
Donau29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
1.79
Donau
1.33

Wiener Viktoria creates 35% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 16 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
Donau
1.19

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
Donau
1.69

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
71%
Wiener Viktoria or Donau
77%
Draw or Donau
52%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
26%
Donau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
83%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
53%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
26%
Donau 1+ goals
74%
Donau 2+ goals
38%
Donau 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
63%
Donau (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Donau away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + Donau defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Donau attack 1.19 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
48%
level
23%
Donau scores more
29%

Wiener Viktoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Wiener Viktoria 1–1 Donau

Wiener Viktoria and Donau drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria in Wien.