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Wiener Viktoria vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
8/28/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 5Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wiener Viktoria54%
×Draw22%
Bruck/Leitha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
2.03
Bruck/Leitha
1.29

Wiener Viktoria creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 54 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
76%
Wiener Viktoria or Bruck/Leitha
78%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
46%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
32%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
87%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
60%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
33%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
72%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
37%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
69%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.03

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
54%
level
22%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
24%

Wiener Viktoria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiener Viktoria vs Bruck/Leitha

Wiener Viktoria beat Bruck/Leitha 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria in Wien.