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Wiener Viktoria vs Austria Vienna (Am) — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Vienna (Am)
3/1/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 16Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wiener Viktoria35%
×Draw23%
Austria Vienna (Am)43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
1.61
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.81

Austria Vienna (Am) creates 12% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 33 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.15

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.33

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
Austria Vienna (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

Austria Vienna (Am) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
57%
Wiener Viktoria or Austria Vienna (Am)
77%
Draw or Austria Vienna (Am)
65%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
17%
Austria Vienna (Am) wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
80%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
48%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
22%
Austria Vienna (Am) 1+ goals
84%
Austria Vienna (Am) 2+ goals
54%
Austria Vienna (Am) 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
45%
Austria Vienna (Am) (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Austria Vienna (Am) away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + Austria Vienna (Am) defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Austria Vienna (Am) attack 2.15 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
35%
level
23%
Austria Vienna (Am) scores more
43%

Austria Vienna (Am) at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Austria Vienna (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Wiener Viktoria 1–5 Austria Vienna (Am)

Austria Vienna (Am) beat Wiener Viktoria 5-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria in Wien.