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Wiener SC vs Favoritner AC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener SC
Wiener SC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
11/3/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 15Sportclub-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wiener SC57%
×Draw22%
Favoritner AC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener SC
1.95
Favoritner AC
1.11

Wiener SC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wiener SC
1.88
Favoritner AC
1.00

allows per match

Wiener SC
1.23
Favoritner AC
2.02

finishing

Wiener SC+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener SC ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wiener SC or draw
79%
Wiener SC or Favoritner AC
78%
Draw or Favoritner AC
43%

Winning margin

Wiener SC wins by 2+
33%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wiener SC 1+ goals
86%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
58%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
31%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
67%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
30%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wiener SC (draw refunded)
73%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener SC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener SC attack 1.88 + Favoritner AC defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.95

Favoritner AC attack 1.00 + Wiener SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wiener SC scores more
57%
level
22%
Favoritner AC scores more
21%

Wiener SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiener SC vs Favoritner AC

Wiener SC beat Favoritner AC 3-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportclub-Platz in Wien.