Favoritner AC 4–2 Wiener SC: Result & Stats

Favoritner AC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wiener SC

10/19/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 12FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Favoritner AC36%

×Draw24%

Wiener SC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Favoritner ACExpected goals in this matchWiener SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.58

Favoritner AC

1.49

Wiener SC

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 100 away

1.43

creates per match

1.61

1.54

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Favoritner AC

1.43

Wiener SC

1.61

allows per match

Favoritner AC

1.54

Wiener SC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Wiener SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw

60%

Favoritner AC or Wiener SC

76%

Draw or Wiener SC

64%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

17%

Wiener SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

77%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

44%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

19%

Wiener SC 1+ goals

79%

Wiener SC 2+ goals

47%

Wiener SC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

47%

Wiener SC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Favoritner AC scores more

36%

level

24%

Wiener SC scores more

40%

Wiener SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff