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Wiedenbrück vs Westfalia Herne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wiedenbrück
Wiedenbrück
FT
1 – 0
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
8/9/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wiedenbrück44%
×Draw28%
Westfalia Herne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiedenbrück
1.31
Westfalia Herne
1.00

Wiedenbrück creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wiedenbrück
1.30
Westfalia Herne
1.00

allows per match

Wiedenbrück
1.00
Westfalia Herne
1.33

finishing

Wiedenbrück+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiedenbrück ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wiedenbrück or draw
72%
Wiedenbrück or Westfalia Herne
72%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
56%

Winning margin

Wiedenbrück wins by 2+
20%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wiedenbrück 1+ goals
73%
Wiedenbrück 2+ goals
38%
Wiedenbrück 3+ goals
14%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
63%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
26%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)
61%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiedenbrück at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiedenbrück attack 1.30 + Westfalia Herne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Westfalia Herne attack 1.00 + Wiedenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiedenbrück scores more
44%
level
28%
Westfalia Herne scores more
28%

Wiedenbrück at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiedenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiedenbrück vs Westfalia Herne

Wiedenbrück beat Westfalia Herne 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Burg in Rheda-Wiedenbrück.