Wiedenbrück 1–0 Peckeloh: Result & Stats

Wiedenbrück

1 – 0

Peckeloh

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wiedenbrück44%

×Draw28%

Peckeloh28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiedenbrückExpected goals in this matchPeckeloh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Wiedenbrück

1.31

Peckeloh

1.00

Wiedenbrück creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.30

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Wiedenbrück

1.30

Peckeloh

1.00

allows per match

Wiedenbrück

1.00

Peckeloh

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiedenbrück+0.00on par

Peckeloh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiedenbrück ↓

Peckeloh →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wiedenbrück or draw

72%

Wiedenbrück or Peckeloh

72%

Draw or Peckeloh

56%

Winning margin

Wiedenbrück wins by 2+

20%

Peckeloh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wiedenbrück 1+ goals

73%

Wiedenbrück 2+ goals

38%

Wiedenbrück 3+ goals

14%

Peckeloh 1+ goals

63%

Peckeloh 2+ goals

26%

Peckeloh 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)

61%

Peckeloh (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wiedenbrück at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Peckeloh away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wiedenbrück attack 1.30 + Peckeloh defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Peckeloh attack 1.00 + Wiedenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiedenbrück scores more

44%

level

28%

Peckeloh scores more

28%

Wiedenbrück at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiedenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff