Wiedenbrück 2–1 Hessen Kassel: Result & Stats

Wiedenbrück

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hessen Kassel

A. Beytullah 90+2'

B. Zahn 65'

N. Jones 56'

1/28/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wiedenbrück39%

×Draw27%

Hessen Kassel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiedenbrückExpected goals in this matchHessen Kassel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Wiedenbrück

1.31

Hessen Kassel

1.19

Wiedenbrück creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Wiedenbrück

1.44

Hessen Kassel

1.38

allows per match

Wiedenbrück

1.00

Hessen Kassel

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiedenbrück+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiedenbrück ↓

Hessen Kassel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wiedenbrück or draw

66%

Wiedenbrück or Hessen Kassel

73%

Draw or Hessen Kassel

61%

Winning margin

Wiedenbrück wins by 2+

18%

Hessen Kassel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wiedenbrück 1+ goals

73%

Wiedenbrück 2+ goals

38%

Wiedenbrück 3+ goals

14%

Hessen Kassel 1+ goals

70%

Hessen Kassel 2+ goals

33%

Hessen Kassel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)

54%

Hessen Kassel (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiedenbrück at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Hessen Kassel away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiedenbrück attack 1.44 + Hessen Kassel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hessen Kassel attack 1.38 + Wiedenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wiedenbrück scores more

39%

level

27%

Hessen Kassel scores more

34%

Wiedenbrück at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wiedenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

N. Jones

65'

B. Zahn

90+2'

A. Beytullah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff