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Wieczysta Kraków vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków65%
×Draw19%
Star Starachowice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
2.33
Star Starachowice
1.07

Wieczysta Kraków creates 118% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
84%
Wieczysta Kraków or Star Starachowice
81%
Draw or Star Starachowice
35%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
42%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
90%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
67%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
41%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
66%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
29%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
80%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
65%
level
19%
Star Starachowice scores more
16%

Wieczysta Kraków at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wieczysta Kraków vs Star Starachowice

Wieczysta Kraków beat Star Starachowice 5-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.