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Wieczysta Kraków vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
8 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
5/11/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków73%
×Draw15%
Sokół Sieniawa12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
2.73
Sokół Sieniawa
1.00

Wieczysta Kraków creates 173% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
88%
Wieczysta Kraków or Sokół Sieniawa
85%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
27%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
52%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
93%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
75%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
50%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
63%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
26%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
86%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.73

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
73%
level
15%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
12%

Wieczysta Kraków at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wieczysta Kraków vs Sokół Sieniawa

Wieczysta Kraków beat Sokół Sieniawa 8-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.