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Wieczysta Kraków vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków64%
×Draw19%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
2.34
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.13

Wieczysta Kraków creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
83%
Wieczysta Kraków or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
81%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
36%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
42%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
90%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
67%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
41%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
68%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
31%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
79%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.34

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
64%
level
19%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
17%

Wieczysta Kraków at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wieczysta Kraków 3–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Wieczysta Kraków beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.