Wieczysta Kraków 4–2 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats

Wieczysta Kraków

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ruch Chorzów

Rafa Lopes 88'

P. Lysiak 78'

S. Feiertag 64', 18'

M. Kolar 48'

N. Lesniak-Paduch 6'

9/28/2025

I Liga · Round 11ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków45%

×Draw23%

Ruch Chorzów32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wieczysta KrakówExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.43

Wieczysta Kraków

1.73

Ruch Chorzów

1.43

Wieczysta Kraków creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

1.44

1.42

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków

1.95

Ruch Chorzów

1.44

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków

1.42

Ruch Chorzów

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw

68%

Wieczysta Kraków or Ruch Chorzów

77%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

55%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

24%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

82%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

52%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

25%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

76%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

42%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

58%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.95 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.44 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

45%

level

23%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

32%

Wieczysta Kraków at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

N. Lesniak-Paduch↳ D. Ventura

18'

S. Feiertag↳ L. Semedo

30'

45'

45+2'

48'

59'

Villar Miki← J. Donkor

59'

P. Lysiak← M. Gajos

61'

R. Pietrzak← M. Pazdan

64'

S. Feiertag↳ P. Pusic

68'

S. Feiertag

72'

N. Lesniak-Paduch

78'

P. Lysiak↳ L. Semedo

80'

J. Goralski← P. Pusic

80'

Rafa Lopes← S. Feiertag

83'

Nono← P. Ceglarz

86'

A. Mikulko

88'

Rafa Lopes

89'

M. Szwoch← D. Ventura

89'

F. Lachendro← P. Szwedzik

Wieczysta

Ruch

82

Bielecki

15

Konczkows

28

⚽

Lesniak-P

24

Komor

4

Preisler

25

A

▼

Ventura

20

Szymanski

18

Nagamatsu

21

▼

Szwedzik

7

⚽

Kolar

77

▼

1

17

89

2

▼

Pazdan

33

Pestka

7

▼

Gajos

12

Piazon

30

▼

Donkor

70

A

▼

Pusic

77

A

Semedo

18

⚽2

▼

Feiertag

59'▲Villar Miki←▼J. Donkor

59'▲P. Lysiak←▼M. Gajos

61'▲R. Pietrzak←▼M. Pazdan

80'▲J. Goralski←▼P. Pusic

80'▲Rafa Lopes←▼S. Feiertag

Wieczysta Kraków substitutes

28Soberka3Goralski5Fila6Pietrzak11Sandoval21Lopes23Miki29Lysiak44Szymonowicz

83'▲Nono←▼P. Ceglarz

89'▲M. Szwoch←▼D. Ventura

89'▲F. Lachendro←▼P. Szwedzik

Ruch Chorzów substitutes

1Szymanski5Rosol9Bala14Nono17Lukic27Szwoch29Lachendro30Sobeczko38Karasinski

I Liga: Wieczysta Kraków 4–2 Ruch Chorzów

Wieczysta Kraków beat Ruch Chorzów 4-2 in I Liga on September 28, 2025.

Goals: N. Lesniak-Paduch (6'), S. Feiertag (18', 64'), M. Kolar (48'), P. Lysiak (78'), Rafa Lopes (88').

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.

Wieczysta Kraków vs Ruch Chorzów — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Wieczysta Kraków 4–2 Ruch Chorzów