Wieczysta Kraków 3–2 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Wieczysta Kraków

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

9/16/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków71%

×Draw16%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wieczysta KrakówExpected goals in this matchOrlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.64

1.02

Wieczysta Kraków

2.64

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.02

Wieczysta Kraków creates 159% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

3.39

creates per match

1.30

0.73

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków

3.39

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.30

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków

0.73

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw

88%

Wieczysta Kraków or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

84%

Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

29%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

50%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

93%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

74%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

48%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

64%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

27%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

85%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.64

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

71%

level

16%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

12%

Wieczysta Kraków at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff