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Wieczysta Kraków vs Nieciecza — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Orzeł

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków34%
×Draw22%
Nieciecza44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
1.69
Nieciecza
1.93

Nieciecza creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
2.27
Nieciecza
2.50

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
1.36
Nieciecza
1.10

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
56%
Wieczysta Kraków or Nieciecza
78%
Draw or Nieciecza
66%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
17%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
82%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
50%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
24%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
85%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
57%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
44%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 2.27 + Nieciecza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nieciecza attack 2.50 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
34%
level
22%
Nieciecza scores more
44%

Nieciecza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wieczysta Kraków vs Nieciecza

Wieczysta Kraków beat Nieciecza 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko KS Orzeł in Lisia Góra.