Wieczysta Kraków vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Wieczysta Kraków43%
Miedz Legnica32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wieczysta Kraków creates 18% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wieczysta Kraków ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches
Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.95 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.56
Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Wieczysta Kraków at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Wisla KrakowWieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia WarszawaMiedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Wieczysta Kraków host Miedz Legnica on Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
Wieczysta Kraków 0 – 1 Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on May 9, 2026.
Goals: A. Cordoba (86').
The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.