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Wieczysta Kraków vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
7 – 1
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
4/8/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków79%
×Draw12%
Lublinianka9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
3.48
Lublinianka
1.15

Wieczysta Kraków creates 203% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
91%
Wieczysta Kraków or Lublinianka
88%
Draw or Lublinianka
21%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
62%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
97%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
85%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
65%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
68%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
32%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
90%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 3.48

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
79%
level
12%
Lublinianka scores more
9%

Wieczysta Kraków at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wieczysta Kraków vs Lublinianka

Wieczysta Kraków beat Lublinianka 7-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.