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Wieczysta Kraków vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków72%
×Draw16%
Garbarnia Kraków12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
2.67
Garbarnia Kraków
1.01

Wieczysta Kraków creates 164% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
88%
Wieczysta Kraków or Garbarnia Kraków
84%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
28%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
51%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
93%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
74%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
49%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
64%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
27%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
86%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.67

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
72%
level
16%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
12%

Wieczysta Kraków at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wieczysta Kraków 4–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Wieczysta Kraków beat Garbarnia Kraków 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.