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Wieczysta Kraków vs Arda Kardzhali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
1/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków48%
×Draw23%
Arda Kardzhali29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
1.79
Arda Kardzhali
1.33

Wieczysta Kraków creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
2.27
Arda Kardzhali
1.30

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
1.36
Arda Kardzhali
1.30

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
71%
Wieczysta Kraków or Arda Kardzhali
77%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
52%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
26%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
83%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
53%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
26%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
74%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
38%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
63%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 2.27 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.30 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
48%
level
23%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
29%

Wieczysta Kraków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Wieczysta Kraków 2–2 Arda Kardzhali

Wieczysta Kraków and Arda Kardzhali drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 23, 2026.