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Widzew Łódź vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/19/2020I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Widzew Łódź50%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.47
Stomil Olsztyn
0.93

Widzew Łódź creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.59
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
0.97
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
76%
Widzew Łódź or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
50%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
25%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
18%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
61%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
24%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
68%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.59 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Widzew Łódź defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
50%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
24%

Widzew Łódź at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Widzew Łódź 2–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Widzew Łódź beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-0 in I Liga on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.