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Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom — Ekstraklasa 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
8/23/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 6Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Widzew Łódź56%
×Draw23%
Radomiak Radom21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.76
Radomiak Radom
0.98

Widzew Łódź creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.26
Radomiak Radom
0.85

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.10
Radomiak Radom
2.26

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more
Radomiak Radom+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Radomiak Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
79%
Widzew Łódź or Radomiak Radom
77%
Draw or Radomiak Radom
44%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
31%
Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
83%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
52%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
26%
Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
62%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
26%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
73%
Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.76

Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
56%
level
23%
Radomiak Radom scores more
21%

Widzew Łódź at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Widzew Łódź 3–2 Radomiak Radom

Widzew Łódź beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.