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Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
8/12/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 4Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Widzew Łódź56%
×Draw24%
ŁKS Łódź20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
0.95

Widzew Łódź creates 84% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 36 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.26
ŁKS Łódź
0.64

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.25
ŁKS Łódź
2.25

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
80%
Widzew Łódź or ŁKS Łódź
76%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
44%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
31%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
83%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
52%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
25%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
61%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
25%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
73%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
56%
level
24%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
20%

Widzew Łódź at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź

Widzew Łódź beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.