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Widzew Łódź vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
9/14/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Widzew Łódź51%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.79
Garbarnia Kraków
1.20

Widzew Łódź creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
2.12
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.12
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
74%
Widzew Łódź or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
49%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
28%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
83%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
53%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
26%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
70%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
34%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
67%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 2.12 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
51%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
26%

Widzew Łódź at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Widzew Łódź 1–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Widzew Łódź and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.