Widzew Łódź U19 1–1 Polonia Warszawa U19

Widzew Łódź U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Polonia Warszawa U19

11/11/2023

Central Youth League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Widzew Łódź U1935%

×Draw21%

Polonia Warszawa U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew Łódź U19Expected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.08

Widzew Łódź U19

1.83

Polonia Warszawa U19

2.08

Polonia Warszawa U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

1.93

creates per match

1.83

2.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Widzew Łódź U19

1.93

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.83

allows per match

Widzew Łódź U19

2.33

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź U19 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź U19 or draw

56%

Widzew Łódź U19 or Polonia Warszawa U19

79%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa U19

65%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+

18%

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals

84%

Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals

54%

Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals

28%

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

87%

Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

61%

Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Polonia Warszawa U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.93 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.83 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Widzew Łódź U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more

44%

Polonia Warszawa U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff