Widad Témara 1–2 Tihad Casablanca: Result & Stats

Widad Témara

FT

1 – 2

Tihad Casablanca

10/5/2019

Botola 2 · Round 4Stade Municipal de Témara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Widad Témara39%

×Draw31%

Tihad Casablanca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widad TémaraExpected goals in this matchTihad Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.92

Widad Témara

1.07

Tihad Casablanca

0.92

Widad Témara creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 46 away

0.97

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Tihad Casablanca

0.87

allows per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Tihad Casablanca

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widad Témara+0.00on par

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widad Témara ↓

Tihad Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Widad Témara or draw

69%

Widad Témara or Tihad Casablanca

69%

Draw or Tihad Casablanca

61%

Winning margin

Widad Témara wins by 2+

15%

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Widad Témara 1+ goals

66%

Widad Témara 2+ goals

29%

Widad Témara 3+ goals

9%

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals

60%

Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals

23%

Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Widad Témara (draw refunded)

56%

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widad Témara at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widad Témara attack 0.97 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + Widad Témara defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Widad Témara scores more

39%

level

31%

Tihad Casablanca scores more

31%

Widad Témara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Widad Témara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff