Widad Témara 2–3 Sidi Kacem: Result & Stats

Widad Témara

FT

2 – 3

Sidi Kacem

2/9/2019

Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Yacoub El Mansour (Témara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Widad Témara41%

×Draw30%

Sidi Kacem29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widad TémaraExpected goals in this matchSidi Kacem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

Widad Témara

1.15

Sidi Kacem

0.92

Widad Témara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

0.97

creates per match

0.87

0.97

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Sidi Kacem

0.87

allows per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Sidi Kacem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widad Témara+0.00on par

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widad Témara ↓

Sidi Kacem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Widad Témara or draw

71%

Widad Témara or Sidi Kacem

70%

Draw or Sidi Kacem

59%

Winning margin

Widad Témara wins by 2+

17%

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Widad Témara 1+ goals

68%

Widad Témara 2+ goals

32%

Widad Témara 3+ goals

11%

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals

60%

Sidi Kacem 2+ goals

23%

Sidi Kacem 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Widad Témara (draw refunded)

58%

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widad Témara at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widad Témara attack 0.97 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Widad Témara defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Widad Témara scores more

41%

level

30%

Sidi Kacem scores more

29%

Widad Témara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Widad Témara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff