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Widad Témara vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Widad Témara
Widad Témara
FT
1 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
2/8/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal de Témara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Widad Témara37%
×Draw33%
Kawkab Marrakech31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widad Témara
0.95
Kawkab Marrakech
0.84

Widad Témara creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Widad Témara
0.96
Kawkab Marrakech
0.77

allows per match

Widad Témara
0.92
Kawkab Marrakech
0.95

finishing

Widad Témara+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widad Témara ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Widad Témara or draw
69%
Widad Témara or Kawkab Marrakech
67%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
63%

Winning margin

Widad Témara wins by 2+
13%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Widad Témara 1+ goals
61%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
25%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
7%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
57%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
21%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Widad Témara (draw refunded)
54%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widad Témara at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widad Témara attack 0.96 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.77 + Widad Témara defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Widad Témara scores more
37%
level
33%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
31%

Widad Témara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Widad Témara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widad Témara vs Kawkab Marrakech

Widad Témara and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Témara in Témara.