Widad Témara 1–0 Kasba Tadla: Result & Stats

Widad Témara

FT

1 – 0

Kasba Tadla

12/2/2018

Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Yacoub El Mansour (Témara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Widad Témara44%

×Draw33%

Kasba Tadla24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widad TémaraExpected goals in this matchKasba Tadla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.69

Widad Témara

1.05

Kasba Tadla

0.69

Widad Témara creates 52% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

0.97

creates per match

0.40

0.97

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Kasba Tadla

0.40

allows per match

Widad Témara

0.97

Kasba Tadla

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widad Témara+0.00on par

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widad Témara ↓

Kasba Tadla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Widad Témara or draw

76%

Widad Témara or Kasba Tadla

67%

Draw or Kasba Tadla

56%

Winning margin

Widad Témara wins by 2+

18%

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Widad Témara 1+ goals

65%

Widad Témara 2+ goals

28%

Widad Témara 3+ goals

9%

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

50%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

15%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Widad Témara (draw refunded)

65%

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widad Témara at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widad Témara attack 0.97 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Widad Témara defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Widad Témara scores more

44%

level

33%

Kasba Tadla scores more

24%

Widad Témara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Widad Témara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff