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Wick Academy vs Rothes — FA Cup 2019

Wick Academy
Wick Academy
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Rothes
Rothes
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wick Academy59%
×Draw18%
Rothes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wick Academy
2.75
Rothes
1.69

Wick Academy creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wick Academy
2.50
Rothes
1.38

allows per match

Wick Academy
2.00
Rothes
3.00

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par
Rothes+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Rothes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw
77%
Wick Academy or Rothes
82%
Draw or Rothes
41%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+
39%
Rothes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals
93%
Wick Academy 2+ goals
75%
Wick Academy 3+ goals
51%
Rothes 1+ goals
82%
Rothes 2+ goals
50%
Rothes 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)
72%
Rothes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Rothes away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Rothes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Rothes attack 1.38 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wick Academy scores more
59%
level
18%
Rothes scores more
23%

Wick Academy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wick Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Wick
Rothes
Gary Manson
Manager: Gary Manson
Ronald Sharp
Manager: Ronald Sharp

Match Recap: Wick Academy vs Rothes

Wick Academy beat Rothes 5-0 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.