Wick Academy 3–1 Musselburgh Athletic

Wick Academy

AET

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Musselburgh Athletic

12/21/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundHarmsworth Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wick Academy36%

×Draw21%

Musselburgh Athletic42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wick AcademyExpected goals in this matchMusselburgh Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.00

Wick Academy

1.85

Musselburgh Athletic

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Wick Academy

2.50

Musselburgh Athletic

2.00

allows per match

Wick Academy

2.00

Musselburgh Athletic

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Musselburgh Athletic →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw

58%

Wick Academy or Musselburgh Athletic

79%

Draw or Musselburgh Athletic

64%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+

19%

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals

84%

Wick Academy 2+ goals

55%

Wick Academy 3+ goals

28%

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

86%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

59%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)

46%

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Musselburgh Athletic away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.00 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wick Academy scores more

36%

level

21%

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

42%

Musselburgh Athletic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Wick Academy 3–1 Musselburgh Athletic

Wick Academy beat Musselburgh Athletic 3-1 in FA Cup on December 21, 2020.

The match was played at Harmsworth Park in Wick.

Wick Academy vs Musselburgh Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Wick Academy 3–1 Musselburgh Athletic