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Wick Academy vs Lochee United — FA Cup 2019

Wick Academy
Wick Academy
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Lochee United
Lochee United
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundHarmsworth Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wick Academy49%
×Draw19%
Lochee United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wick Academy
2.56
Lochee United
2.06

Wick Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wick Academy
2.50
Lochee United
2.13

allows per match

Wick Academy
2.00
Lochee United
2.63

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par
Lochee United+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Lochee United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw
68%
Wick Academy or Lochee United
81%
Draw or Lochee United
51%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+
30%
Lochee United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals
92%
Wick Academy 2+ goals
72%
Wick Academy 3+ goals
46%
Lochee United 1+ goals
87%
Lochee United 2+ goals
61%
Lochee United 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)
61%
Lochee United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Lochee United away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Lochee United defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.56

Lochee United attack 2.13 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wick Academy scores more
49%
level
19%
Lochee United scores more
32%

Wick Academy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wick Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wick Academy vs Lochee United

Wick Academy beat Lochee United 5-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Harmsworth Park in Wick.