Wick Academy 1–3 Jeanfield Swifts: Result & Stats

Wick Academy

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Jeanfield Swifts

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundHarmsworth Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wick Academy33%

×Draw20%

Jeanfield Swifts47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wick AcademyExpected goals in this matchJeanfield Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.35

Wick Academy

1.96

Jeanfield Swifts

2.35

Jeanfield Swifts creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

2.71

2.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Wick Academy

2.50

Jeanfield Swifts

2.71

allows per match

Wick Academy

2.00

Jeanfield Swifts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw

53%

Wick Academy or Jeanfield Swifts

80%

Draw or Jeanfield Swifts

67%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+

17%

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals

86%

Wick Academy 2+ goals

58%

Wick Academy 3+ goals

31%

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

90%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

68%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)

41%

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wick Academy scores more

33%

level

20%

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

47%

Jeanfield Swifts at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff