Wick Academy 0–6 Falkirk: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Wick Academy

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Falkirk

B. McKay 87'

C. Donaldson 84'

G. Oliver 70' (pen), 63'

G. Williamson 61' (OG)

R. Burrell 41'

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundHarmsworth Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wick Academy31%

×Draw20%

Falkirk49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wick AcademyExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.28

Wick Academy

1.81

Falkirk

2.28

Falkirk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

2.56

2.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Wick Academy

2.50

Falkirk

2.56

allows per match

Wick Academy

2.00

Falkirk

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Falkirk →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw

51%

Wick Academy or Falkirk

80%

Draw or Falkirk

69%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+

16%

Falkirk wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals

84%

Wick Academy 2+ goals

54%

Wick Academy 3+ goals

27%

Falkirk 1+ goals

90%

Falkirk 2+ goals

66%

Falkirk 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)

39%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Falkirk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.81

Falkirk attack 2.56 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wick Academy scores more

31%

level

20%

Falkirk scores more

49%

Falkirk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. Oluwasegun

28'

36'

41'

46'

47'

50'

G. Oliver← R. Burrell

61'

G. WilliamsonOwn goal

62'

A. Hughes

63'

G. Oliver↳ K. Kennedy

65'

A. Nesbitt

66'

F. Yeats← S. Hetherington

67'

S. Mackie← L. McCann

70'

G. OliverPenalty

71'

S. Ross← C. McGuffie

72'

C. Farquhar← J. Halliday

72'

T. MacLeod← R. Campbell

72'

J. Flett← H. Hennem

74'

S. Mackie

80'

C. Montgomery← M. Macadie

80'

J. Mackintosh← J. Henry

84'

C. Donaldson↳ K. Kennedy

86'

R. Allan

87'

B. McKay

Wick

Falkirk

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🥅

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Manager: G. Manson

72'▲C. Farquhar←▼J. Halliday

72'▲T. MacLeod←▼R. Campbell

72'▲J. Flett←▼H. Hennem

80'▲C. Montgomery←▼M. Macadie

80'▲J. Mackintosh←▼J. Henry

Wick Academy substitutes

16Farquhar23MacLeod18Flett19Montgomery26Mackintosh4Farquhar25More

Manager: J. McGlynn

46'▲A. Nesbitt←▼O. Lawal

50'▲G. Oliver←▼R. Burrell

66'▲F. Yeats←▼S. Hetherington

67'▲S. Mackie←▼L. McCann

71'▲S. Ross←▼C. McGuffie

Falkirk substitutes

10Nesbitt18Oliver14Yeats26Mackie16Ross12Martin

FA Cup: Wick Academy 0–6 Falkirk

Falkirk beat Wick Academy 6-0 in FA Cup on November 26, 2022.

Goals: R. Burrell (41'), G. Williamson (61' o.g.), G. Oliver (63', 70' pen), C. Donaldson (84'), B. McKay (87').

The match was played at Harmsworth Park in Wick.

Wick Academy vs Falkirk — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Wick Academy 0–6 Falkirk