Wick Academy 0–0 Benburb: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Wick Academy

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benburb

M. MacGregor 103'

J. Taggart 98'

10/25/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wick Academy34%

×Draw21%

Benburb44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wick AcademyExpected goals in this matchBenburb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.00

Wick Academy

1.75

Benburb

2.00

Benburb creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Wick Academy

2.50

Benburb

2.00

allows per match

Wick Academy

2.00

Benburb

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wick Academy+0.00on par

Benburb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wick Academy ↓

Benburb →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Wick Academy or draw

56%

Wick Academy or Benburb

79%

Draw or Benburb

66%

Winning margin

Wick Academy wins by 2+

17%

Benburb wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Wick Academy 1+ goals

83%

Wick Academy 2+ goals

52%

Wick Academy 3+ goals

25%

Benburb 1+ goals

86%

Benburb 2+ goals

59%

Benburb 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Wick Academy (draw refunded)

44%

Benburb (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wick Academy at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Benburb away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wick Academy attack 2.50 + Benburb defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Benburb attack 2.00 + Wick Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wick Academy scores more

34%

level

21%

Benburb scores more

44%

Benburb at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

98'

J. Taggart↳ M. Collins

103'

M. MacGregor

Wick

Benburb

Manager: Gary Manson

Manager: P. Lovering