Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wichita vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Wichita
Wichita
FT
0 – 1
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/26/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36Stryker Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wichita47%
×Draw22%
Green Bay Voyageurs31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wichita
1.96
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.56

Wichita creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wichita
1.82
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Wichita
2.12
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Wichita+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wichita ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Wichita or draw
69%
Wichita or Green Bay Voyageurs
78%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
53%

Winning margin

Wichita wins by 2+
26%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wichita 1+ goals
86%
Wichita 2+ goals
58%
Wichita 3+ goals
31%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
79%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
46%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wichita (draw refunded)
60%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wichita at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wichita attack 1.82 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Wichita defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wichita scores more
47%
level
22%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
31%

Wichita at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wichita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Wichita 0–1 Green Bay Voyageurs

Green Bay Voyageurs beat Wichita 1-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stryker Soccer Complex in Wichita, Kansas.