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Wichita vs Chicago Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Wichita
Wichita
CANC
00:00
Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
7/9/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 64Stryker Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wichita58%
×Draw18%
Chicago Dutch Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wichita
2.65
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.66

Wichita creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wichita
1.82
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.20

allows per match

Wichita
2.12
Chicago Dutch Lions
3.47

finishing

Wichita+0.00on par
Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wichita ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Wichita or draw
77%
Wichita or Chicago Dutch Lions
82%
Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions
42%

Winning margin

Wichita wins by 2+
38%
Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wichita 1+ goals
93%
Wichita 2+ goals
74%
Wichita 3+ goals
48%
Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
81%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
49%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wichita (draw refunded)
71%
Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wichita at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wichita attack 1.82 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.65

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Wichita defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wichita scores more
58%
level
18%
Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
23%

Wichita at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wichita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wichita face Chicago Dutch Lions (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Wichita hosting Chicago Dutch Lions. Match starts July 9, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wichita host Chicago Dutch Lions at Stryker Soccer Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.