Wiązownica 1–4 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

1 – 4

Wisła Puławy

9/13/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wiązownica20%

×Draw22%

Wisła Puławy59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.98

Wiązownica

1.05

Wisła Puławy

1.98

Wisła Puławy creates 89% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

1.46

creates per match

2.10

1.85

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Wisła Puławy

2.10

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Wisła Puławy

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

41%

Wiązownica or Wisła Puławy

78%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

80%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

7%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

65%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

28%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

9%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

86%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

59%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

25%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.05

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wiązownica scores more

20%

level

22%

Wisła Puławy scores more

59%

Wisła Puławy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff