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Wiązownica vs Wieczysta Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
1 – 3
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
3/30/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wiązownica30%
×Draw23%
Wieczysta Kraków46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.41
Wieczysta Kraków
1.79

Wieczysta Kraków creates 27% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Wieczysta Kraków
1.74

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Wieczysta Kraków
1.35

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
54%
Wiązownica or Wieczysta Kraków
77%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
70%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
14%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
76%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
41%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
17%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
83%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
53%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
40%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wiązownica scores more
30%
level
23%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
46%

Wieczysta Kraków at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiązownica vs Wieczysta Kraków

Wieczysta Kraków beat Wiązownica 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.