Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wiązownica vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
10/6/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wiązownica32%
×Draw24%
Star Starachowice44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.36
Star Starachowice
1.63

Star Starachowice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
56%
Wiązownica or Star Starachowice
76%
Draw or Star Starachowice
68%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
14%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
74%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
39%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
16%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
80%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
48%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
42%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiązownica scores more
32%
level
24%
Star Starachowice scores more
44%

Star Starachowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiązownica vs Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice beat Wiązownica 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.