Wiązownica 0–6 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

0 – 6

Stal Stalowa Wola

10/10/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wiązownica27%

×Draw23%

Stal Stalowa Wola50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.79

Wiązownica

1.27

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.79

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 41% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 54 away

1.46

creates per match

1.74

1.85

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.74

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

50%

Wiązownica or Stal Stalowa Wola

77%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

73%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

11%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

72%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

36%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

14%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

83%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

53%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

35%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wiązownica scores more

27%

level

23%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

50%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff