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Wiązownica vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
8/10/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wiązownica35%
×Draw24%
Podhale Nowy Targ41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.48
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
59%
Wiązownica or Podhale Nowy Targ
76%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
65%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
17%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
77%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
43%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
19%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
80%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
48%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
46%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wiązownica scores more
35%
level
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
41%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 3–1 Podhale Nowy Targ

Wiązownica beat Podhale Nowy Targ 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.