Wiązownica 4–1 Lublinianka: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

4 – 1

Lublinianka

8/17/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wiązownica55%

×Draw19%

Lublinianka26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchLublinianka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.71

Wiązownica

2.51

Lublinianka

1.71

Wiązownica creates 47% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 16 away

1.46

creates per match

1.56

1.85

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Lublinianka

1.56

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Lublinianka

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Lublinianka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

74%

Wiązownica or Lublinianka

81%

Draw or Lublinianka

45%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

35%

Lublinianka wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

92%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

71%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

45%

Lublinianka 1+ goals

82%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

51%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

68%

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.51

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wiązownica scores more

55%

level

19%

Lublinianka scores more

26%

Wiązownica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wiązownica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff