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Wiązownica vs Hetman Zamosc — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
3 – 0
Hetman Zamosc
Hetman Zamosc
8/2/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wiązownica69%
×Draw16%
Hetman Zamosc15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
2.88
Hetman Zamosc
1.33

Wiązownica creates 117% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Hetman Zamosc
0.80

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Hetman Zamosc
4.30

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Hetman Zamosc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
85%
Wiązownica or Hetman Zamosc
84%
Draw or Hetman Zamosc
31%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
48%
Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
94%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
78%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
54%
Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals
74%
Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals
38%
Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
82%
Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.88

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wiązownica scores more
69%
level
16%
Hetman Zamosc scores more
15%

Wiązownica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wiązownica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 3–0 Hetman Zamosc

Wiązownica beat Hetman Zamosc 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.