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Wiązownica vs Cracovia Kraków II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
2 – 1
Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
10/3/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wiązownica37%
×Draw23%
Cracovia Kraków II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.56
Cracovia Kraków II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Cracovia Kraków II
1.42

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Cracovia Kraków II
1.66

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Cracovia Kraków II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
60%
Wiązownica or Cracovia Kraków II
77%
Draw or Cracovia Kraków II
63%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
18%
Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
79%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
46%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
21%
Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
81%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
49%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
48%
Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Cracovia Kraków II away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.42 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wiązownica scores more
37%
level
23%
Cracovia Kraków II scores more
40%

Cracovia Kraków II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 2–1 Cracovia Kraków II

Wiązownica beat Cracovia Kraków II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.