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Wiązownica vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
11/3/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wiązownica31%
×Draw23%
Chełmianka Chełm46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.44
Chełmianka Chełm
1.79

Chełmianka Chełm creates 24% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
54%
Wiązownica or Chełmianka Chełm
77%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
69%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
14%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
76%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
42%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
18%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
83%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
53%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
40%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wiązownica scores more
31%
level
23%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
46%

Chełmianka Chełm at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 0–4 Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Wiązownica 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.