Wiązownica 0–0 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avia Świdnik

5/13/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wiązownica26%

×Draw23%

Avia Świdnik51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.87

Wiązownica

1.29

Avia Świdnik

1.87

Avia Świdnik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

1.46

creates per match

1.89

1.85

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

49%

Wiązownica or Avia Świdnik

77%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

74%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

11%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

72%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

37%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

14%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

85%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

56%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

34%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wiązownica scores more

26%

level

23%

Avia Świdnik scores more

51%

Avia Świdnik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff