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White Star Woluwe W vs Standard Liege W — Super League Women 2018

White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
12/2/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 13Stade Communal Fallon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

White Star Woluwe W24%
×Draw23%
Standard Liege W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

White Star Woluwe W
1.13
Standard Liege W
1.77

Standard Liege W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

White Star Woluwe W
0.85
Standard Liege W
1.76

allows per match

White Star Woluwe W
1.79
Standard Liege W
1.41

finishing

White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par
Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

White Star Woluwe W ↓

Standard Liege W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

White Star Woluwe W or draw
48%
White Star Woluwe W or Standard Liege W
77%
Draw or Standard Liege W
76%

Winning margin

White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
9%
Standard Liege W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
68%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
31%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
11%
Standard Liege W 1+ goals
83%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
53%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
32%
Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

White Star Woluwe W at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.85 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + White Star Woluwe W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

White Star Woluwe W scores more
24%
level
23%
Standard Liege W scores more
52%

Standard Liege W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: White Star Woluwe W 0–1 Standard Liege W

Standard Liege W beat White Star Woluwe W 1-0 in Super League Women on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Communal Fallon in Brussels.