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Sydvest vs Odder — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Sydvest
Sydvest
FT
2 – 0
Odder
Odder
11/3/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sydvest43%
×Draw26%
Odder31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydvest
1.46
Odder
1.19

Sydvest creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sydvest
1.05
Odder
1.14

allows per match

Sydvest
1.24
Odder
1.86

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw
69%
Sydvest or Odder
74%
Draw or Odder
57%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+
21%
Odder wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals
77%
Sydvest 2+ goals
43%
Sydvest 3+ goals
18%
Odder 1+ goals
70%
Odder 2+ goals
33%
Odder 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)
58%
Odder (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Odder away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.05 + Odder defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.46

Odder attack 1.14 + Sydvest defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydvest scores more
43%
level
26%
Odder scores more
31%

Sydvest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sydvest 2 – 0 Odder

Sydvest beat Odder 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at BankParken in Tønder.